US Consumers Retract in 4Q

Unnoticed in last week’s US 4Q data was the continued weakness in the consumer and government sectors. While the US business sector continues to recover from the SARS-CoV-19 collapse, other than residential construction and home repair, consumer and government spending appears exceedingly weak. Half the 4Q 4.0% GDP increase was driven by consumer spending on

Consumers are Eager to Spend While Manufacturers are Struggling

US consumers are eager to spend but manufacturers are slow to – or cannot – respond. Retail sales increased 1.9% m/m in September after a 0.6% m/m July increase. September gains were especially strong for autos, clothing and sporting goods. Even department store sales rose 9.7%. Surprisingly, e-commerce sales – what the Census Bureau labels

Policy Punchline Podcast on Digital Currencies

Policy Punchline is a podcast, created, produced, and edited by a group of very talented Princeton University students – led by Tiger Gao. The podcast promotes long-form dialogues on frontier ideas and urgent issues with scholars, policy makers, business executives, journalists, and entrepreneurs.  Policy Punchline with Martin Fleming The following is the portion of the

Policy Punchline Podcast on AI and Automation

Policy Punchline is a podcast, created, produced, and edited by a group of very talented Princeton University students – led by Tiger Gao. The podcast promotes long-form dialogues on frontier ideas and urgent issues with scholars, policy makers, business executives, journalists, and entrepreneurs.  Policy Punchline with Martin Fleming The following is the portion of the

Policy Punchline Podcast on the Post-Pandemic Era

Policy Punchline is a podcast, created, produced, and edited by a group of very talented Princeton University students – led by Tiger Gao, The podcast promotes long-form dialogues on frontier ideas and urgent issues with scholars, policy makers, business executives, journalists, and entrepreneurs.  Policy Punchline with Martin Fleming The following is the portion of the

Banks, Helped in the Crisis, Face Substantial Future Challenges

Profits at US banks have tumbled, their share prices are underperforming, and their leaders sound grim. However, long-term investors have found new sources of optimism. Compared with the overall equities market, bank shares have traded at lower multiples since the financial crisis. They have been punished as if investors expect any economic trouble to expose

Now Is Not the Time for False Austerity

The president and congress are about to lose their starring economic policy role with a repeat of the unforced errors committed in 2011when Mark Meadows’ Tea Party drove a sharp switch to austerity. The result was an 9-year journey back to full employment. Congress, the president, and the Federal Reserve, along with healthcare providers, have

With Very Targeted Job Gains Unemployment Falls

At 10.2% in July, the unemployment rate remains painfully high. With 16.3M workers unemployed – available, looking for work & receiving unemployment benefits – and 14.3M receiving special pandemic benefits, 31M workers remain idle. However, there is some good news but the gains were very targeted. Six of the industries hardest hit over the past

The Surprises Hidden in the 2Q GDP Data

The 32.9% GDP 2Q decline was hardly surprising. Many of us forecast such a decline at the outset of the quarter. There are, however, two aspects of today’s report that are surprising. First is the 45% increase in disposal personal income. The entire increase is from the $2.5 trillion 2Q increase in government program spending

Avoiding Future Public Health Disasters

The profound failure of much of the world’s public health infrastructure during the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in the loss of tens of millions of jobs and untold financial losses for both families and businesses. The science of public health, and those working in the profession who are responsible for detecting, preventing, and responding to