At 10.2% in July, the unemployment rate remains painfully high. With 16.3M workers unemployed – available, looking for work & receiving unemployment benefits – and 14.3M receiving special pandemic benefits, 31M workers remain idle. However, there is some good news but the gains were very targeted.
Six of the industries hardest hit over the past six months saw substantial employment increases. In fact, the “recovering six” account for nearly 78% of July’s 1.8M net new jobs. As many regions came back to life during July, the restaurant and food service industry added 502,000 jobs and the retail sector added 258,000 jobs. Clothing and apparel stores saw the largest gain with 121,000 jobs added. Despite a continuing shortage of teachers – fearful of contracting COVID-19 – public and private education jobs increased by 239,000.
Similarly, physicians’ offices, dentist offices and ambulatory care centers added 126,000 jobs while the personal services sector – e.g. laundry and dry-cleaning services, pet care services, and home care services – added 119,000 jobs. Temporary help jobs increased by 144,000.
Beyond the “recovering six”, there were also notable gains in the auto and airline industries. The auto industry added 39,000 jobs, accounting for the entire manufacturing sector gain. Aside from these gains, the sector lost 13,000 jobs. The airline industry added 16,000 jobs, but airline jobs remains down 110,000 from a year ago. There were also 20,000 jobs added in ground transportation – Uber, Lyft, etc. – but still down 158,000 jobs from last July.
Of course, it’s still early in the month of August so it remains to be seen how the month unfolds. However, it appears another 1.0M to 1.5M jobs could be created with the unemployment rate falling by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points.
Martin Fleming's Blog 